Journal Reference

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AP News, 12 February.
https://apnews.com/4c8d31006a4cb6c9227044679e99d343
Aljazeera (2019). ‘EU-far right MPs head to Kashmir in rare
foreign visit’. 28 October.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/eu-mps-visit-kashmir
-foreign-visit-clampdown-191028121735778.html
Aljazeera (2020a). ‘How 2019 changed the Kashmir problem
forever’. Aljazeera News, 1 January.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/2019-changed-kashm
ir-dispute-191230065243012.html
Aljazeera (2020b). ‘”Demographic flooding”: India introduces new
Kashmir domicile law’. Aljazeera News, 1 April.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/flooding-india-introd
uces-kashmir-domicile-law-200401100651450.html
Ambedkarism (2011). ‘Dr. Ambedkar’s Resignation Speech’,
Ambedkarism for Social Revolution in India. 10 March.
https://ambedkarism.wordpress.com/2011/03/10/dr-ambedkars
-resignation-speech/
Ashok, S. (2018). ‘Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel’s views on Kashmir
problem: What the record says’. The Indian Express,12 February.
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/sardar-vallabhbhai
-patels-views-on-kashmir-problem-what-the-record-says5060077/
Chakrabartty, P. P. (2020). ‘India has the longest running fascist
movement in the world – The RSS’. The Wire, 22 January.
https://thewire.in/politics/benjamin-zachariah-fascismsangh-parivar
Chatterji, A. (2020). ‘Citizenship laws and the Nazification of India.’
Berkley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs. 9 March 2020.
https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/responses/citizenship-law
s-and-the-nazification-of-india
Chatterji, A. P., T.B. Hensen, & C. Jaffrelot (2019). Majoritarian
State: How Hindu Nationalism is Changing in India. London:
Oxford University Press.
Economic Times (2019).'Centre rushes 10,000 troops to Kashmir,'
Economic Times, 27 July.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/centre-rus
hes-10000-troops-to-kashmir/articleshow/70409455.cms?
from=mdr
Economist, The (2019). State of disgrace: India’s judges are ignoring
the government’s abuses in Kashmir. The Economist, 5 October.
https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/10/05/indias-judges-are
-ignoring-the-governments-abuses-in-kashmir.
Election Commission of India (2019). ‘Assembly segment wise
information electors’.
https://eci.gov.in/files/file/10965-15-assembly-segment-wise-inf
ormation-electors/
Freedom House (2020). ‘Freedom in the world: A leaderless
struggle for democracy’. 4 March.
https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2020-02/FIW_202
0_REPORT_BOOKLET_Final.pdf
Ganai, N. (2020). ‘Kashmir’s new political party draws inspiration
from the man who ‘betrayed’ Sheikh Abdullah.’ Outlook, 8 March.
https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-kashm
irs-new-political-party-apni-party-draws-inspiration-from-the-m
an-who-betrayed-sheikh-abdullah/348446
GoJK (2020). List of IAS Officers. Srinagar: Government of
Jammu & Kashmir, General Administration Department.
https://jkgad.nic.in/leftMenu/CivilList.aspx.
Greater Kashmir (2020). ‘7357 arrested after August 5 move in
Kashmir, all but 451 released: MHA’. 11 March.
https://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/kashmir/7357-arrestedafter-august-5-move-in-kashmir-all-but-451-released-mha/
Hasan, S. (2020). 'Another setback for Pakistan’s faltering
Kashmir stance,' TRT World, 7 February.
https://www.trtworld.com/asia/another-setback-for-pakistan-s-f
altering-kashmir-stance-33584.
Javaid, A. (2020a). ‘Kashmir is fine: New group of foreign envoys
visit J&K, tweet sparks controversy.’ The Print, 12 February.
https://theprint.in/india/second-batch-of-foreign-envoys-arrivein-jk-to-assess-situation-in-the-union-territory/364182/
Javaid, A. (2020b). ‘Outside firms entering mining race in J&K,
lease earnings touch crores from lakhs.’ The Print, 6 February.
https://theprint.in/india/outside-firms-enter-mining-race-in-jk-l
ease-earnings-touch-crores-from-lakhs/360175/
Javaid, A. (2020c) ‘What Farooq Abdullah’s release means for
mainstream politics in Kashmir’. The Print, 14 March.
https://theprint.in/politics/what-farooq-abdullahs-release-mean
s-for-mainstream-politics-in-kashmir/381213/
JKCCS (2019). Annual Human Rights Review 2019. Srinagar:
Jammu Kashmir Coalition of Civil Society.
http://jkccs.net/annual-human-rights-review-2019-2/
Khaliq, R. (2019). ‘2018 deadliest year for Jammu and Kashmir in
a decade’. Andalou Agency, 1 August.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/2018-deadliest-year-for-j
ammu-and-kashmir-in-decade-/1359163.
Kumar, R. & A. Lacy (2020). 'India lobbies to stifle criticism,
control messaging in u.s. congress amid rising anti-Muslim
violence,' The Intercept, 16 March.
https://theintercept.com/2020/03/16/india-lobbying-uscongress/
Kumar, S. (2020). ‘Foreign diplomats visit ‘normal’ Kashmir on
state-run trip’. Arab News, 9 January.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1610571/world
Majid, Z. (2019). 'Troops deployed in Kashmir for Amarnath
yatra', Deccan Herald, 28 May.
https://www.deccanherald.com/national/troops-deployed-in-kas
hmir-for-amarnath-yatra-736675.html
Mir, H. (2020). ‘How India silenced Kashmir’s leading newspaper
columnists.’ TRT World, 7 January.
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/how-india-silenced-kashmi
r-s-leading-newspaper-columnists-32765
National Herald (2019). ‘Economist Jean Dreze: Article 370
helped reducing poverty in Jammu and Kashmir’. 9 August.
https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/economist-jean-dre
ze-jandk-more-developed-than-gujarat-special-status-helped-red
ucing-poverty
OHCHR (2018). ‘First-ever UN human rights report on Kashmir
calls for international inquiry into multiple violations.’ Office of
the High Commissioner for Human Rights, 12 June.
https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.asp
x?NewsID=23198%20
Rashid, I. (2020). ‘Theatrics of a “Violent State” or “State of
Violence”: Mapping Histories and Memories of Partition in
Jammu and Kashmir”, South Asia: Journal of South Asian Studies
43 (2): 215-231.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00856401.2020.
1712774
Raval, A. & B. Parkin (2019). ‘Saudi Aramco deepens Indian ties
with Reliance partnership’. Financial Times, 12 August.
https://www.ft.com/content/95ee8b64-bd1a-11e9-b350-db00d5
09634e
Reporters Without Borders (2019). ‘RSF breaks the silence forced
on journalists in Indian-administered Kashmir’. 12 November.
https://rsf.org/en/news/rsf-breaks-silence-forced-journalists-ind
ian-administered-kashmir
Sandhu, K. K. (2020). ‘Hizb commander releases fresh audio tape
to motivate cadres after lifting of social media curbs in Kashmir’.
India Today, 15 March.
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/hizb-commander-release
s-fresh-audio-tape-to-motivate-cadres-in-kashmir-1655666-2020
-03-15
Scroll.in (2019). ‘Jammu and Kashmir: 125 projects cleared on
forest land since August, only 97 approved last year’. 21 October
2019. https://scroll.in/latest/941222/jammu-and-kashmir-125-
projects-cleared-on-forest-land-since-august-only-97-approved-l
ast-year
Scroll.in (2020). ‘Zee News’ Sudhir Chowdhury’s ‘jihad’ chart
draws flak: ‘Radio Rwanda levels of dog-whistling’. 12 March.
https://scroll.in/article/955940/zee-news-sudhir-chaudhurys-jih
ad-chart-draws-flak-radio-rwanda-levels-of-dog-whistling
Sidiq, N. (2019). ‘69 deaths in Kashmir since Aug. 5, rights group
says’. Andalou Agency, 31 January.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/69-deaths-in-kashmir-sin
ce-aug-5-rights-group-says/1688788
Singh, N. (2019). ‘How foreign media coverage of Kashmir crisis
has become a headache for Modi govt.’ The Print, 29 October.
https://theprint.in/features/how-foreign-media-coverage-of-kas
hmir-crisis-has-become-a-headache-for-modi-govt/312558/
Singh, V. (2020). ‘2019 recorded most number of stone throwing
incidents in Jammu and Kashmir’. The Hindu, 5 January 2020.
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/2019-recorded-mostnumber-of-stone-throwing-incidents-in-jammu-and-kashmir/art
icle30485984.ece
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Rs 17,878 crore in losses.’ The Wire, 18 December.
https://thewire.in/economy/after-august-5-kashmirs-economy-h
as-suffered-rs-17878-crore-in-losses
Vaid, D. (2020). ‘Foreign delegation ends controversial tour of
Indian-administered Kashmir’. 14 February 2020.
https://www.dw.com/en/foreign-delegation-ends-controversial-t
our-of-indian-administered-kashmir/a-52377933
Wani, A. (2019). ‘Postpaid mobile phone services restored in
Kashmir 72 days after lockdown, Internet still off’. India Today, 14
October.
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/post-paid-mobile-service
s-restored-in-kashmir-valley-1609122-2019-10-14
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exodus of businesses and students.’ Quartz India, 18 February.
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kes-startups-students-flee/
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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/31/world/asia/kashmir-scho
ol-children.html
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About the Author
Mohd Tahir Ganie PHD is affiliated to the Institute for
International Conflict Resolution and Reconstruction, School of
Law and Government, Dublin City University, Dublin, Ireland. He
can be reached at: Email: [email protected]
198 I Ganie Politics in New Kashmir I 199
Looking to the Future in 'New Kashmir'
On March 31, 2020, India introduced Jammu and Kashmir
Reorganization (Adaptation of State Laws) Order and defined
'domicile' with regard to government employment in J&K,
retrospectively and prospectively extending residency status and
privileges to thousands of Indian civilian and military officials
(and their children) who have served in J&K for 10 years and
generally to those who have resided in J&K for 15 years. People of
J&K fear this will lead to demographic flooding, hugely affecting
their livelihoods and in the long term impacting the results of
potential plebiscite (Aljazeera, 2020b).
As people of J&K are very apprehensive about losing their unique
identity to the Indian settler-colonial project, they are likely to
organize resistance as and when political opportunities appear.
However, presently, New Delhi is tightly controlling the situation
in Kashmir with its military strength and the service of Lieutenant
Governor Murmu, on the one hand, and by keeping Kashmiri
leaders imprisoned and Kashmiri media under pressure.
Manipulating the political void created after the annulment of
Article 370, the BJP has succeeded in co-opting a group of
Kashmiri politicians. After a secret meeting on 21 February 2020
between influential former PDP
minister, Altaf Bukhari, and Ram Madhav, general secretary of the
BJP, at Gulmarg resort, Bukhari announced a new political outfit,
Apni Party, on 8 March 2020 (Ganai, 2020). The Apni Party
mainly comprises of the former legislators who defected from the
PDP, and a few from the NC and the Congress. It has accepted
abrogation of Article 370 as fait accompli and seeks to restart
political process in Kashmir to get the statehood back (Zargar,
2020).
The emergence of the BJP-backed Apni Party presents a dilemma
to NC and PDP. If elections are held and they decide to boycott the
polls in protest against abrogation of 370, the Apni Party can form
the next government in coalition with BJP, whose core
constituency in the Hindu-dominated Jammu region will give the
party up to 40 seats. Even if the voter turn-out remains low, the
first-past-the-post system will help the Apni Party candidates, as
they can mobilize enough voters to secure victory. If the NC and
the PDP take part in the polls, then the Indian government can use
elections for propaganda purposes that there is democracy in
Kashmir, even though the Freedom House report- 2020 shows
that Kashmir has slipped from being 'partially free' to 'unfree.'
That Kashmir is ‘unfree’ gets evident in the unusual way that the
Kashmiri political leaders are making public statements these
days. For example, Farooq Abdullah, one of the senior-most
politicians and two times chief minister of J&K, who is usually
quite vocal on issues, told reporters after his release from
detention on 13 March 2020, "I will answer no question or speak
on [no] political matters till everyone is released. It's only when
they are released that I will be able to speak on political matters"
(Zargar, 2020). It is likely that Abdullah, the NC patriarch, has
signed a bond and entered into an agreement with New Delhi as a
condition for his release. If New Delhi manages to get the NC to
contest the polls on the plank of restoration of J&K's statehood
(but without Article 370), then the PDP, which has seen the
greatest number of defections, will be decimated entirely. The
Apni Party is poaching more leaders from the all parties concerned
in the coming weeks (Javaid, 2020c). So, ultimately it will be a
contest between the Apni Party and the NC, as the Apni Party will
cut into the PDP's vote shares.
Although the Indian military has killed around 35 insurgents in
2020 so far, the pattern since the last two decades shows that at
any given point, there are always 200-250 militants active in
Kashmir. That means there are an equal number of recruits as
those killed in a year. On 14 March 2020, Riyaz Naikoo, the chief
commander of the largest indigenous insurgent group, Hizbul
Mujahideen, released a 16-min audio clip (Sandhu, 2020). He
referred to recently released pro-Indian Kashmiri politicians and
said that Indian governments have used and thrown them as and
when required and denied that the abrogation of Article 370 would
have any impact on their fight against Indian occupation in
Kashmir. With the US exit from Afghanistan, the Kashmiri armed
movement may receive fresh impetus, even though Imran Khan
has shown disinclination toward supporting armed groups in a
measure to focus on internal security and FDI-driven economic
development. It is also unlikely that militants from Afghanistan
can enter Kashmir, because the LOC is tightly sealed and manned
by thousands of Indian troops.
Overall, Kashmir is likely to remain caught in a cycle of relative
calm and unrest that has marked its modern history. Resistance
against Indian rule will continue, despite the draconian measures
adopted by the BJP government. Election boycott as a tool of
resistance will get further support, especially among the youth,
who form over 30 percent of the total population of Kashmir. In
case the opposition parties in India manage to topple the BJP
government in the next election scheduled for 2024 and a new
non-BJP government reinitiates a dialogue process with Pakistan
and Kashmiri leaders, some positive changes on the ground may
follow in terms of creating relatively better political opportunities
for Kashmiris to reassert themselves politically.
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Wani, R. (2020). ‘Kashmir’s internet gag has sparked a major
exodus of businesses and students.’ Quartz India, 18 February.
https://qz.com/india/1803539/kashmirs-internet-shutdown-ma
kes-startups-students-flee/
Yadavar, S. & A. Parvaiz (2019). ‘Ground report: Kashmir’s
blackout is triggering a new wave of mental health issues.’ The
Wire, 14 September.
https://thewire.in/health/kashmir-blackout-report-mentalhealth
Yasir, S. & J. Gettleman (2019). ‘Anxious and cooped up, 1.5
million Kashmiri children are still out of school’. The New York
Times, 31 October.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/31/world/asia/kashmir-scho
ol-children.html
Zargar, A. (2020). ‘Farooq’s release and the emergence of Apni
Party stir Kashmir’s still waters.’ News Click, 15 March.
https://www.newsclick.in/Farooq-Release-and-Emergence-of-Ap
ni-Party-Stir-Kashmir-Still-Waters
Zavos, J. (2000). The Emergence of Hindu Nationalism in India.
London: Oxford University Press.
About the Author
Mohd Tahir Ganie PHD is affiliated to the Institute for
International Conflict Resolution and Reconstruction, School of
Law and Government, Dublin City University, Dublin, Ireland. He
can be reached at: Email: [email protected]
200 I Ganie Politics in New Kashmir I 201
Looking to the Future in 'New Kashmir'
On March 31, 2020, India introduced Jammu and Kashmir
Reorganization (Adaptation of State Laws) Order and defined
'domicile' with regard to government employment in J&K,
retrospectively and prospectively extending residency status and
privileges to thousands of Indian civilian and military officials
(and their children) who have served in J&K for 10 years and
generally to those who have resided in J&K for 15 years. People of
J&K fear this will lead to demographic flooding, hugely affecting
their livelihoods and in the long term impacting the results of
potential plebiscite (Aljazeera, 2020b).
As people of J&K are very apprehensive about losing their unique
identity to the Indian settler-colonial project, they are likely to
organize resistance as and when political opportunities appear.
However, presently, New Delhi is tightly controlling the situation
in Kashmir with its military strength and the service of Lieutenant
Governor Murmu, on the one hand, and by keeping Kashmiri
leaders imprisoned and Kashmiri media under pressure.
Manipulating the political void created after the annulment of
Article 370, the BJP has succeeded in co-opting a group of
Kashmiri politicians. After a secret meeting on 21 February 2020
between influential former PDP
minister, Altaf Bukhari, and Ram Madhav, general secretary of the
BJP, at Gulmarg resort, Bukhari announced a new political outfit,
Apni Party, on 8 March 2020 (Ganai, 2020). The Apni Party
mainly comprises of the former legislators who defected from the
PDP, and a few from the NC and the Congress. It has accepted
abrogation of Article 370 as fait accompli and seeks to restart
political process in Kashmir to get the statehood back (Zargar,
2020).
The emergence of the BJP-backed Apni Party presents a dilemma
to NC and PDP. If elections are held and they decide to boycott the
polls in protest against abrogation of 370, the Apni Party can form
the next government in coalition with BJP, whose core
constituency in the Hindu-dominated Jammu region will give the
party up to 40 seats. Even if the voter turn-out remains low, the
first-past-the-post system will help the Apni Party candidates, as
they can mobilize enough voters to secure victory. If the NC and
the PDP take part in the polls, then the Indian government can use
elections for propaganda purposes that there is democracy in
Kashmir, even though the Freedom House report- 2020 shows
that Kashmir has slipped from being 'partially free' to 'unfree.'
That Kashmir is ‘unfree’ gets evident in the unusual way that the
Kashmiri political leaders are making public statements these
days. For example, Farooq Abdullah, one of the senior-most
politicians and two times chief minister of J&K, who is usually
quite vocal on issues, told reporters after his release from
detention on 13 March 2020, "I will answer no question or speak
on [no] political matters till everyone is released. It's only when
they are released that I will be able to speak on political matters"
(Zargar, 2020). It is likely that Abdullah, the NC patriarch, has
signed a bond and entered into an agreement with New Delhi as a
condition for his release. If New Delhi manages to get the NC to
contest the polls on the plank of restoration of J&K's statehood
(but without Article 370), then the PDP, which has seen the
greatest number of defections, will be decimated entirely. The
Apni Party is poaching more leaders from the all parties concerned
in the coming weeks (Javaid, 2020c). So, ultimately it will be a
contest between the Apni Party and the NC, as the Apni Party will
cut into the PDP's vote shares.
Although the Indian military has killed around 35 insurgents in
2020 so far, the pattern since the last two decades shows that at
any given point, there are always 200-250 militants active in
Kashmir. That means there are an equal number of recruits as
those killed in a year. On 14 March 2020, Riyaz Naikoo, the chief
commander of the largest indigenous insurgent group, Hizbul
Mujahideen, released a 16-min audio clip (Sandhu, 2020). He
referred to recently released pro-Indian Kashmiri politicians and
said that Indian governments have used and thrown them as and
when required and denied that the abrogation of Article 370 would
have any impact on their fight against Indian occupation in
Kashmir. With the US exit from Afghanistan, the Kashmiri armed
movement may receive fresh impetus, even though Imran Khan
has shown disinclination toward supporting armed groups in a
measure to focus on internal security and FDI-driven economic
development. It is also unlikely that militants from Afghanistan
can enter Kashmir, because the LOC is tightly sealed and manned
by thousands of Indian troops.
Overall, Kashmir is likely to remain caught in a cycle of relative
calm and unrest that has marked its modern history. Resistance
against Indian rule will continue, despite the draconian measures
adopted by the BJP government. Election boycott as a tool of
resistance will get further support, especially among the youth,
who form over 30 percent of the total population of Kashmir. In
case the opposition parties in India manage to topple the BJP
government in the next election scheduled for 2024 and a new
non-BJP government reinitiates a dialogue process with Pakistan
and Kashmiri leaders, some positive changes on the ground may
follow in terms of creating relatively better political opportunities
for Kashmiris to reassert themselves politically.
References
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AP News, 12 February.
https://apnews.com/4c8d31006a4cb6c9227044679e99d343
Aljazeera (2019). ‘EU-far right MPs head to Kashmir in rare
foreign visit’. 28 October.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/eu-mps-visit-kashmir
-foreign-visit-clampdown-191028121735778.html
Aljazeera (2020a). ‘How 2019 changed the Kashmir problem
forever’. Aljazeera News, 1 January.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/2019-changed-kashm
ir-dispute-191230065243012.html
Aljazeera (2020b). ‘”Demographic flooding”: India introduces new
Kashmir domicile law’. Aljazeera News, 1 April.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/flooding-india-introd
uces-kashmir-domicile-law-200401100651450.html
Ambedkarism (2011). ‘Dr. Ambedkar’s Resignation Speech’,
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-resignation-speech/
Ashok, S. (2018). ‘Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel’s views on Kashmir
problem: What the record says’. The Indian Express,12 February.
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/sardar-vallabhbhai
-patels-views-on-kashmir-problem-what-the-record-says5060077/
Chakrabartty, P. P. (2020). ‘India has the longest running fascist
movement in the world – The RSS’. The Wire, 22 January.
https://thewire.in/politics/benjamin-zachariah-fascismsangh-parivar
Chatterji, A. (2020). ‘Citizenship laws and the Nazification of India.’
Berkley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs. 9 March 2020.
https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/responses/citizenship-law
s-and-the-nazification-of-india
Chatterji, A. P., T.B. Hensen, & C. Jaffrelot (2019). Majoritarian
State: How Hindu Nationalism is Changing in India. London:
Oxford University Press.
Economic Times (2019).'Centre rushes 10,000 troops to Kashmir,'
Economic Times, 27 July.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/centre-rus
hes-10000-troops-to-kashmir/articleshow/70409455.cms?
from=mdr
Economist, The (2019). State of disgrace: India’s judges are ignoring
the government’s abuses in Kashmir. The Economist, 5 October.
https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/10/05/indias-judges-are
-ignoring-the-governments-abuses-in-kashmir.
Election Commission of India (2019). ‘Assembly segment wise
information electors’.
https://eci.gov.in/files/file/10965-15-assembly-segment-wise-inf
ormation-electors/
Freedom House (2020). ‘Freedom in the world: A leaderless
struggle for democracy’. 4 March.
https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2020-02/FIW_202
0_REPORT_BOOKLET_Final.pdf
Ganai, N. (2020). ‘Kashmir’s new political party draws inspiration
from the man who ‘betrayed’ Sheikh Abdullah.’ Outlook, 8 March.
https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-kashm
irs-new-political-party-apni-party-draws-inspiration-from-the-m
an-who-betrayed-sheikh-abdullah/348446
GoJK (2020). List of IAS Officers. Srinagar: Government of
Jammu & Kashmir, General Administration Department.
https://jkgad.nic.in/leftMenu/CivilList.aspx.
Greater Kashmir (2020). ‘7357 arrested after August 5 move in
Kashmir, all but 451 released: MHA’. 11 March.
https://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/kashmir/7357-arrestedafter-august-5-move-in-kashmir-all-but-451-released-mha/
Hasan, S. (2020). 'Another setback for Pakistan’s faltering
Kashmir stance,' TRT World, 7 February.
https://www.trtworld.com/asia/another-setback-for-pakistan-s-f
altering-kashmir-stance-33584.
Javaid, A. (2020a). ‘Kashmir is fine: New group of foreign envoys
visit J&K, tweet sparks controversy.’ The Print, 12 February.
https://theprint.in/india/second-batch-of-foreign-envoys-arrivein-jk-to-assess-situation-in-the-union-territory/364182/
Javaid, A. (2020b). ‘Outside firms entering mining race in J&K,
lease earnings touch crores from lakhs.’ The Print, 6 February.
https://theprint.in/india/outside-firms-enter-mining-race-in-jk-l
ease-earnings-touch-crores-from-lakhs/360175/
Javaid, A. (2020c) ‘What Farooq Abdullah’s release means for
mainstream politics in Kashmir’. The Print, 14 March.
https://theprint.in/politics/what-farooq-abdullahs-release-mean
s-for-mainstream-politics-in-kashmir/381213/
JKCCS (2019). Annual Human Rights Review 2019. Srinagar:
Jammu Kashmir Coalition of Civil Society.
http://jkccs.net/annual-human-rights-review-2019-2/
Khaliq, R. (2019). ‘2018 deadliest year for Jammu and Kashmir in
a decade’. Andalou Agency, 1 August.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/2018-deadliest-year-for-j
ammu-and-kashmir-in-decade-/1359163.
Kumar, R. & A. Lacy (2020). 'India lobbies to stifle criticism,
control messaging in u.s. congress amid rising anti-Muslim
violence,' The Intercept, 16 March.
https://theintercept.com/2020/03/16/india-lobbying-uscongress/
Kumar, S. (2020). ‘Foreign diplomats visit ‘normal’ Kashmir on
state-run trip’. Arab News, 9 January.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1610571/world
Majid, Z. (2019). 'Troops deployed in Kashmir for Amarnath
yatra', Deccan Herald, 28 May.
https://www.deccanherald.com/national/troops-deployed-in-kas
hmir-for-amarnath-yatra-736675.html
Mir, H. (2020). ‘How India silenced Kashmir’s leading newspaper
columnists.’ TRT World, 7 January.
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/how-india-silenced-kashmi
r-s-leading-newspaper-columnists-32765
National Herald (2019). ‘Economist Jean Dreze: Article 370
helped reducing poverty in Jammu and Kashmir’. 9 August.
https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/economist-jean-dre
ze-jandk-more-developed-than-gujarat-special-status-helped-red
ucing-poverty
OHCHR (2018). ‘First-ever UN human rights report on Kashmir
calls for international inquiry into multiple violations.’ Office of
the High Commissioner for Human Rights, 12 June.
https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.asp
x?NewsID=23198%20
Rashid, I. (2020). ‘Theatrics of a “Violent State” or “State of
Violence”: Mapping Histories and Memories of Partition in
Jammu and Kashmir”, South Asia: Journal of South Asian Studies
43 (2): 215-231.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00856401.2020.
1712774
Raval, A. & B. Parkin (2019). ‘Saudi Aramco deepens Indian ties
with Reliance partnership’. Financial Times, 12 August.
https://www.ft.com/content/95ee8b64-bd1a-11e9-b350-db00d5
09634e
Reporters Without Borders (2019). ‘RSF breaks the silence forced
on journalists in Indian-administered Kashmir’. 12 November.
https://rsf.org/en/news/rsf-breaks-silence-forced-journalists-ind
ian-administered-kashmir
Sandhu, K. K. (2020). ‘Hizb commander releases fresh audio tape
to motivate cadres after lifting of social media curbs in Kashmir’.
India Today, 15 March.
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/hizb-commander-release
s-fresh-audio-tape-to-motivate-cadres-in-kashmir-1655666-2020
-03-15
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draws flak: ‘Radio Rwanda levels of dog-whistling’. 12 March.
https://scroll.in/article/955940/zee-news-sudhir-chaudhurys-jih
ad-chart-draws-flak-radio-rwanda-levels-of-dog-whistling
Sidiq, N. (2019). ‘69 deaths in Kashmir since Aug. 5, rights group
says’. Andalou Agency, 31 January.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/69-deaths-in-kashmir-sin
ce-aug-5-rights-group-says/1688788
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hmir-crisis-has-become-a-headache-for-modi-govt/312558/
Singh, V. (2020). ‘2019 recorded most number of stone throwing
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as-suffered-rs-17878-crore-in-losses
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s-restored-in-kashmir-valley-1609122-2019-10-14
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exodus of businesses and students.’ Quartz India, 18 February.
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kes-startups-students-flee/
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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/31/world/asia/kashmir-scho
ol-children.html
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ni-Party-Stir-Kashmir-Still-Waters
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London: Oxford University Press.
About the Author
Mohd Tahir Ganie PHD is affiliated to the Institute for
International Conflict Resolution and Reconstruction, School of
Law and Government, Dublin City University, Dublin, Ireland. He
can be reached at: Email: [email protected]
202 I Ganie Politics in New Kashmir I 203
Looking to the Future in 'New Kashmir'
On March 31, 2020, India introduced Jammu and Kashmir
Reorganization (Adaptation of State Laws) Order and defined
'domicile' with regard to government employment in J&K,
retrospectively and prospectively extending residency status and
privileges to thousands of Indian civilian and military officials
(and their children) who have served in J&K for 10 years and
generally to those who have resided in J&K for 15 years. People of
J&K fear this will lead to demographic flooding, hugely affecting
their livelihoods and in the long term impacting the results of
potential plebiscite (Aljazeera, 2020b).
As people of J&K are very apprehensive about losing their unique
identity to the Indian settler-colonial project, they are likely to
organize resistance as and when political opportunities appear.
However, presently, New Delhi is tightly controlling the situation
in Kashmir with its military strength and the service of Lieutenant
Governor Murmu, on the one hand, and by keeping Kashmiri
leaders imprisoned and Kashmiri media under pressure.
Manipulating the political void created after the annulment of
Article 370, the BJP has succeeded in co-opting a group of
Kashmiri politicians. After a secret meeting on 21 February 2020
between influential former PDP
minister, Altaf Bukhari, and Ram Madhav, general secretary of the
BJP, at Gulmarg resort, Bukhari announced a new political outfit,
Apni Party, on 8 March 2020 (Ganai, 2020). The Apni Party
mainly comprises of the former legislators who defected from the
PDP, and a few from the NC and the Congress. It has accepted
abrogation of Article 370 as fait accompli and seeks to restart
political process in Kashmir to get the statehood back (Zargar,
2020).
The emergence of the BJP-backed Apni Party presents a dilemma
to NC and PDP. If elections are held and they decide to boycott the
polls in protest against abrogation of 370, the Apni Party can form
the next government in coalition with BJP, whose core
constituency in the Hindu-dominated Jammu region will give the
party up to 40 seats. Even if the voter turn-out remains low, the
first-past-the-post system will help the Apni Party candidates, as
they can mobilize enough voters to secure victory. If the NC and
the PDP take part in the polls, then the Indian government can use
elections for propaganda purposes that there is democracy in
Kashmir, even though the Freedom House report- 2020 shows
that Kashmir has slipped from being 'partially free' to 'unfree.'
That Kashmir is ‘unfree’ gets evident in the unusual way that the
Kashmiri political leaders are making public statements these
days. For example, Farooq Abdullah, one of the senior-most
politicians and two times chief minister of J&K, who is usually
quite vocal on issues, told reporters after his release from
detention on 13 March 2020, "I will answer no question or speak
on [no] political matters till everyone is released. It's only when
they are released that I will be able to speak on political matters"
(Zargar, 2020). It is likely that Abdullah, the NC patriarch, has
signed a bond and entered into an agreement with New Delhi as a
condition for his release. If New Delhi manages to get the NC to
contest the polls on the plank of restoration of J&K's statehood
(but without Article 370), then the PDP, which has seen the
greatest number of defections, will be decimated entirely. The
Apni Party is poaching more leaders from the all parties concerned
in the coming weeks (Javaid, 2020c). So, ultimately it will be a
contest between the Apni Party and the NC, as the Apni Party will
cut into the PDP's vote shares.
Although the Indian military has killed around 35 insurgents in
2020 so far, the pattern since the last two decades shows that at
any given point, there are always 200-250 militants active in
Kashmir. That means there are an equal number of recruits as
those killed in a year. On 14 March 2020, Riyaz Naikoo, the chief
commander of the largest indigenous insurgent group, Hizbul
Mujahideen, released a 16-min audio clip (Sandhu, 2020). He
referred to recently released pro-Indian Kashmiri politicians and
said that Indian governments have used and thrown them as and
when required and denied that the abrogation of Article 370 would
have any impact on their fight against Indian occupation in
Kashmir. With the US exit from Afghanistan, the Kashmiri armed
movement may receive fresh impetus, even though Imran Khan
has shown disinclination toward supporting armed groups in a
measure to focus on internal security and FDI-driven economic
development. It is also unlikely that militants from Afghanistan
can enter Kashmir, because the LOC is tightly sealed and manned
by thousands of Indian troops.
Overall, Kashmir is likely to remain caught in a cycle of relative
calm and unrest that has marked its modern history. Resistance
against Indian rule will continue, despite the draconian measures
adopted by the BJP government. Election boycott as a tool of
resistance will get further support, especially among the youth,
who form over 30 percent of the total population of Kashmir. In
case the opposition parties in India manage to topple the BJP
government in the next election scheduled for 2024 and a new
non-BJP government reinitiates a dialogue process with Pakistan
and Kashmiri leaders, some positive changes on the ground may
follow in terms of creating relatively better political opportunities
for Kashmiris to reassert themselves politically.
References
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https://apnews.com/4c8d31006a4cb6c9227044679e99d343
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-foreign-visit-clampdown-191028121735778.html
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from=mdr
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the government’s abuses in Kashmir. The Economist, 5 October.
https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/10/05/indias-judges-are
-ignoring-the-governments-abuses-in-kashmir.
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ormation-electors/
Freedom House (2020). ‘Freedom in the world: A leaderless
struggle for democracy’. 4 March.
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0_REPORT_BOOKLET_Final.pdf
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from the man who ‘betrayed’ Sheikh Abdullah.’ Outlook, 8 March.
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irs-new-political-party-apni-party-draws-inspiration-from-the-m
an-who-betrayed-sheikh-abdullah/348446
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Jammu & Kashmir, General Administration Department.
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Greater Kashmir (2020). ‘7357 arrested after August 5 move in
Kashmir, all but 451 released: MHA’. 11 March.
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Hasan, S. (2020). 'Another setback for Pakistan’s faltering
Kashmir stance,' TRT World, 7 February.
https://www.trtworld.com/asia/another-setback-for-pakistan-s-f
altering-kashmir-stance-33584.
Javaid, A. (2020a). ‘Kashmir is fine: New group of foreign envoys
visit J&K, tweet sparks controversy.’ The Print, 12 February.
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Javaid, A. (2020b). ‘Outside firms entering mining race in J&K,
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